Previous World Championships

As part of my fact gathering for Monpazier, it seemed logical to me to then review the data from the previous three world championships too. I did exclude 2018 WEG though (because we all know what a disaster that was and of course the abandonment meant we can’t really compare anyway).

2023 Butheeb (UAE)

Winning speed: 21.02

Completion Rate: 35%

GA: 28%

RET: 8%

MET: 10%

DSQ: 5%

	Completion	Top 10	FTQ
Gate 1: 31km	17.58	20.49	18.71
Gate 2: 30km	18.46	21.29	18.14
Gate 3: 30km	15.86	18.50	17.26
Gate 4: 29km	15.38	17.45	16.53
Gate 5: 20km	16.25	19.36	17.01
Gate 6: 20km	16.06	19.67	16.54
Average	15.87	18.79	17.36

2021 Pisa (ITA)

Winning speed: 21.60

Completion Rate: 35%

GA: 22%

RET: 4%

MET: 11%

DSQ: 5%

	Completion	Top 10	FTQ
Gate 1: 34km	20.91	21.46	19.79
Gate 2: 24km	20.21	22.32	18.85
Gate 3: 33km	20.17	20.97	18.73
Gate 4: 26km	19.77	20.64	17.84
Gate 5: 24km	19.34	22.12	16.59
Gate 6: 20km	19.38	22.97	17.06
Average	19.62	21.10	18.14

2016 Samorin (SVK)

Winning speed: 23.61

Completion Rate: 35%

GA: 29%

RET: 3%

MET: 7%

DSQ: not listed

	Completion	Top 10	FTQ
Gate 1: 40km	19.68	22.70	20.21
Gate 2: 35km	19.89	22.24	20.12
Gate 3: 35km	19.75	22.46	20.04
Gate 4: 30km	17.38	20.20	19.35
Gate 5: 20km	20.49	25.30	21.35
Average	19.21	22.58	20.21

Comments:

Winning Speed and Completion Rate: Despite variations in winning speed, the completion rate consistently hovers around 35% across all events, indicating that the level of challenge and attrition remains relatively steady.

Reasons for Non-Completion: Generally, GA is the most frequent reason for non-completion across all events, followed by MET. The relatively low RET percentage suggests that most riders who do not finish the race do so due to horse-related issues rather than rider withdrawal.

Loop analysis:

First Loop:    - The first loop typically shows high speeds for both those who complete the race and those who eventually FTQ. There is generally no significant difference between these groups in the first loop, indicating that the first loop is more about settling into the race rather than being a decisive point for completion.

Second Loop:   - The second loop often maintains similar speeds to the first, but differences between completers and non-completers begin to emerge, especially in more challenging events like Butheeb 2023. However, most riders, including those who will FTQ, are still competitive at this stage, meaning the second loop is not yet a major deciding factor.

Third Loop:   - This loop is where we start to see more significant divergences in speed. Riders who eventually FTQ often begin to show slightly lower speeds than those who complete the race, especially in more challenging environments. The third loop can be an early indicator of potential issues, such as fatigue or horse health, which may lead to non-completion later. Thus, the third loop is somewhat decisive but not the most critical.

Fourth Loop:   - The fourth loop is a pivotal point in the race. This is where the difference in speeds between completers and non-completers becomes more pronounced. Those who are likely to FTQ often start showing a significant drop in speed compared to those who will finish, indicating that fatigue, horse condition, or strategic decisions are starting to take a toll. The fourth loop often marks the beginning of a clear divide, making it a decisive loop for many riders.

Fifth Loop:   - The fifth loop often shows a rebound in speeds, particularly for those aiming to finish strongly. However, this is also where many riders who eventually FTQ either drop out or struggle significantly. The difference in speeds between completers and non-completers can be quite noticeable here, making the fifth loop a critical juncture. If a rider is struggling in this loop, it often indicates they may not complete the race.

Last Loop:   - The last loop is generally where all riders, including those who will finish, push their hardest. Those who are close to FTQ might still be competitive, but this loop is more about sealing the final result rather than being decisive. By this stage, most who are likely to FTQ have already dropped out, and those who continue are more likely to complete.

MY PREDICTIONS HERE

Taking into account the data from the previous five 160kms at Monpazier + the previous three world champs there are definitely some key learnings and consistent common pitfalls to avoid. The blended view here.

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